Eighteen months ago, many economists and real estate investors were predicting a house market crash. They saw similarities to the 2008 crash and believed the housing market was in a bubble. One particularly loud voice of dissent was Dave Ramsey. Was Dave Ramsey’s prediction on the housing market right?

The Prediction

Dave Ramsey did not believe we were headed toward a repeat of 2008. In fact, he encouraged people to buy a house for a reasonable price based on the value of the home and not freak out about a higher interest rate. He continued to maintain that his 25% rule for house hunting applied. This means that all house costs—mortgage, insurance, taxes, HOA fees—are no more than 25% of your take home pay. But again, who was right—most economists or Dave Ramsey?

Who was right?

I will let Mr. Ramsey speak for himself. He clearly gives an answer is this clip from his show.

Needless to say, Dave Ramsey feels very confident that he was correct in his prediction. His team developed their prediction based on data and were not driven by emotions. They also based their prediction on the simple law of supply and demand. Three years ago, the real estate was a “feeding frenzy” as Mike Goins told the Houston Chronicle. Fortunately for potential home buyers, the frenzy has passed. But what is the current local market like?

Local Market Data

Dave Ramsey lives in Nashville, which has seen tremendous growth as people from other states move there in droves. Similarly, Conroe also saw tremendous growth for the same reason. In fact, it was named the fastest growing city in the United States. But what about now? According to Redfin, the median sales price for a single-family home has dropped 10.5% this past year to $306,500. The number of single-family homes sold has remained steady at 276. And, the days on the market has climbed to 45, which is still way below average.

Earlier this year, local businessmen and women met at a conference to discuss Lake Conroe’s outlook. They predicted that places like Montgomery and Willis would grow more than Conroe in 2023. So, let’s look at the data for Montgomery. According to Redfin, the median sales price for a single-family home has increased 10.9% to $449,000. More single-family homes sold and the days on the market are at 46.

Therefore, our local real estate market is strong. Since the feeding frenzy is over, the prices reflect the value of a home better. People are still steadily buying houses. In addition, you can expect to sell your home in a relatively short amount of time if you make it presentable.

Dave Ramsey’s prediction on the housing market was right so far. He made his prediction by looking at facts and not feelings. In the same way, one should purchase a house. Can you afford the home? Am I paying a reasonable amount based on the value of the home? If you can answer “yes” to both of these questions, then go for it. The real estate market in Montgomery County is steady and strong. There is no time like the present if you need to sell or want to buy a home.

Of course, contact Mike Goins at 936-444-5929 to discuss your options.